Blog

“What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been” – Grateful Dead “It is often said that there are two types of forecasts…lucky or wrong” – Anonymous During this past quarter, there were more than a handful of times that I read a particular headline and did a double take, just to make sure that I wasRead more

People ask me to predict the future, when all I want to do is prevent it. To hell with more of the same. I want better. —Ray Bradbury Prepare for the unknown by studying how others in the past have coped with theunforeseeable and the unpredictable. —George S. Patton “Auld Lang Syne,” the poem byRead more

I figure lots of predictions is best. People will forget the ones I get wrong and marvel over the rest. —Alan Cox The best qualification of a prophet is to have a good memory. —Marquis of Halifax I must be off of my rocker to try and make sense of profoundly mixed economic data andRead more

I always avoid prophesying beforehand because it is much better to prophesy after the event has already taken place. —Winston Churchill There are decades when nothing happens and then there are weeks where decades happen. —Vladimir Lenin As I reflect upon the first half of 2020, I can’t help but think about the book, “FooledRead more

If you’re going through hell, keep going. —Winston Churchill You may encounter many defeats, but you must not be defeated. In fact, it may be necessary to encounter the defeats, so you can know who you are, what you can rise from, how you can still come out of it. —Maya Angelou Before you readRead more

“If all the economists were laid end to end, they’d never reach a conclusion.” -George Bernard Shaw “Prophesy is a good business, but full of risks.” -Mark Twain First and foremost, on behalf of the entire Clear Capital team, allow me to express my very best wishes to each of you and your families forRead more

“If you have to forecast, forecast often.” Edgar Fiedler “An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn’t happen today.” Evan Esar As I reflect back on the recently concluded third quarter, I would like to start by engaging you in a simple thought experiment.  Imagine that youRead more

“The good news is that economists are intelligent, engaging, and often charming folks.  The bad news is their work is often of little use to investors.” Barry Ritholtz The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” John Galbraith After reflecting on the events of the second quarter, I was tempted toRead more

“Look to the future, because that is where you will spend the rest of your life” George Burns “I never think of the future.  It comes soon enough.” Albert Einstein   These two quotes, seemingly complete contradictions both in terms of content and authorship, are remarkably apropos of this latest quarter and the very conflictingRead more